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Estimating SMS Production Numbers from Serial Numbers
Posted: Fri May 13, 2016 5:47 pm Last edited by BKK on Sun Feb 28, 2021 3:31 pm; edited 2 times in total |
This was done for the Commodore 64 here, by applying the formula for the German tank problem to serial numbers. This is my attempt to do the same for SMS.
I've been collating SMS serial & model numbers here, if you'd like to contribute you can also post in this thread on SMS Power. Sega used the same basic serial number format (with some minor variations) on all of their consoles from the Master System to the Saturn. The first three digits ie "XYZ" (which I'll refer to as the batch number) denote the manufacturer, year of assembly, and production run. For example; X: This was the manufacturers code. In 1986 1 (Japan), 3 (Taiwan), 5 (Taiwan), and 8 (Japan) manufactured SMS. These would occasionally get reset or reassigned as the manufacturers changed. Y: This was the last digit of the year of assembly. ie "6" = 1986, "1"= 1991 etc. Z: This was the production run, generally with different models being simultaneously manufactured starting in different codes. At first they usually started in 1, 5, or 8. When they ran out of numbers they started using upper case letters, then lower case letters. This system was also used by Mega Drive, with letters reserved for each model. After running out of letters the system was simplified in 1990/1991 (depending on manufacturer). With them adding an extra digit, and just starting at 0. SMSII (and a small number of very late SMS1s) use this simplified format. These batch numbers are unique per region, and for Japan and North America on SMS1, generally unique per model. The exception in North America happened when models were updated part way through a batch, but it's a very clear change, where models below a certain number are the old model, whilst model numbers above that number are the newer model, thus each serial number should be unique to just that console, and not just unique to the model number. For SMS II the situation is more complicated. The exact format depends on manufacturer. Only "B" (Japan) manufactured North American SMS IIs, and the pattern suggests that serial numbers from this manufacturer are only unique to the model number. Theoretically different model number can share the same serial number. With only one manufacturer, and two models, it's relatively simple to estimate North American numbers. For Europe/PAL the situation is a lot more complicated. With there being dozens of different model numbers I'll need more serials before I can estimate those. Still, in the meantime, here's my preliminary analysis of Japanese and North American serial numbers. Japan: Manu. Year Run Model(s) Num_seen Max_seen Total
8(JP) 7(1987) 1+ MK-2000 71 59,605 60,444 3(TW) 7(1987) 8+ MK-2000 81 48,591 49,190 3(TW) 8(1988) 8+ MK-2000 29 19,277 19,941 Estimated Production: 1987: 109,634 1988: 19,941 Total: 129,575 Japan is really simple to estimate, only three batch numbers, and one model. I found the number to be surprisingly small. Unfortunately we don't yet understand the format used prior to SMS, so can't estimate Mark III numbers, which I suspect to be higher. These estimates could change slightly with a larger sample, but are unlikely to change significantly. North America: 1(JP) 6(1986) 1+ 3010 21 112,062 117,397
8(JP) 6(1986) 1+ 3010 3 11,068 14,756 5(TW) 6(1986) 1+ 3010 22 134,311 140,415 3(TW) 6(1986) 1+ 3010 18 113,992 120,324 3(TW) 6(1986) 5+ 3010 8 35,765 40,235 3(TW) 7(1987) 5+ 3010 6 36,550 42,641 3(TW) 8(1988) 1+ 3010/3010-A 67 390,774 396,605 3(TW) 8(1988) F+ 3010-A 12 48,343 52,371 7(HK) 7(1987) 1+ 3000 10 37,678 41,445 7(HK) 8(1988) 1+ 3000 16 74,648 79,313 7(HK/CN) 8(1988) 5+ 3000/3010 12 84,716 91,775 7(HK/CN) 8(1988) A+ 3010 24 84,850 88,384 4(CN) 8(1988) 1+ 3010-A 37 226,619 232,743 4(CN) 8(1988) 5+ 3010/3010-B 14 82,253 88,127 4(CN) 8(1988) A+ 3010-C 12 56,355 61,050 4(CN) 0(1990) Y+ 3000 2 8,141 12,211 1(CN) 1(1991) 0+ 3010-A 5 17,296 20,754 B(JP) 0(1990) 0+ MK-3006 28 87,798 90,933 B(JP) 0(1990) 0+ 3006-22 4 8,051 10,063 Estimated Production: 1986: 433,127 1987: 84,086 1988: 1,090,368 1989: - 1990: 113,207 1991: 20,754 Total: 1,741,542 That fits really well with the 1.8m figure that Tec Toy's Stefano Arnhold said. When they switched to newer models they didn't always update the model number immediately, so it would require working out which numbers have which bios to get a good estimation for a breakdown betwen consoles with bios v1.3 and v2.4 (Hang On/Safari Hunt). These make up the vast majority of units. For v3.4 (Hang On), and v4.4 (Missile Defense 3-D) it's a bit simpler. These only come from one batch number each. 485: Whilst these models start with 3010, before switching to 3010-B later, all of the 3010 ones that I've seen still contain bios v3.4. So an estimated 90,000 of those were produced. 48A: These are all 3010-C, so an estimated 60,000 with bios v4.4 were produced. SMS II: An estimated 90,000 US units, and 10,000 Canadian units were produced. They didn't even manage to sell all of those US ones in America, some of those ended up with the Mexican distributor. A small number of SMS1s were manufactured in 1990 and 1991 for Canada and Mexico respectively. |
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Posted: Fri May 13, 2016 7:30 pm |
Awesome, a shame not to have the PAL numbers though - maybe the number of variants suggests a large total number, as we'd probably expect. | |
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Posted: Fri May 13, 2016 9:03 pm |
PAL will be done eventually :) | |
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Posted: Sat May 14, 2016 8:55 am |
I found that on twitter recently, been meaning to post it.
I don't know what the source is from may be wrong. Top claim to be HW sales, bottom 2 lines claim to be Software. I don't know which region. *EDIT* That's the tweet フロラン:フランスでの任天堂VSセガ売り上げ推移 https://twitter.com/michsuzu/status/721259044619419648 So that's sales in FRANCE according to Florent (Florent Gorges who works on Pix'n Love books) Context was this conference apparently https://twitter.com/hashtag/retrogamealacarte?src=hash |
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Posted: Sat May 14, 2016 9:10 am |
I am going to ask for model/serial numbers from the Japanese community and will post them on the other thread if I get any. | |
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Posted: Sat May 14, 2016 9:50 am |
I believe that those were GfK (a retail sales tracker who still tracks French video game sales) estimates, but I don't think they were very accurate back then as lots of video game sales weren't in consumer electronic stores that they tracked, but in toy stores and independent computer stores. We can get a good estimate for France for SMS II from serial numbers as it's the only country to use that model (similar for UK too), but for SMS1 it will be difficult to tease out sales per model as they seem (I need more serials to confirm) to have produced several different models in each batch. |
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Posted: Sat May 14, 2016 9:58 am |
Thanks, the more we have, the more accurate the estimates becomes. |
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Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2016 1:52 am |
I've added more serial numbers and recalculated the estimates, but it didn't change anything significantly.
For Japanese Master System increasing the number of serial numbers from 51 to 65 changed the estimated total from 136k to 134k. For North American Master System increasing the number of serial numbers from 283 to 322 changed the estimated total from 1.75m to 1.74m. I think that we're pretty much there with those two regions, I'll take a stab at PAL regions soon. |
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Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 8:27 pm |
One extra sample:
SG-1000 Blue/red/white (standard) Model: SG-1000 S/N: H1124176 |
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Posted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:49 am |
Hi BBK!
Did you do some work on the PAL estimates? :-) |
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Posted: Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:48 pm |
^ Sorry for the late reply ...
This is a lot of work, so I'll break it down with SMS1 first; PAL Master System 1: Manu. Year Run Model(s) Num_seen Max_seen Total
8(JP) 6(1986) 5 3005-18 56 18,705 19,038 8(JP) 6(1986) 6 3010-XX 33 35,748 36,830 7(CN) 7(1987) 5/6/7 3010-XX/3010 274 228,111 228,943 4(CN) 8(1988) G 3005-XX-B 93 45,477 45,965 4(CN) 9(1989) G/H 3005-XX-B 212 183,871 184,737 4(CN) 0(1990) G/H 3005-XX-B 140 145,276 146,313 4(CN) 1(1991) G 3005-XX-B 6 4,899 5,715 4(CN) 8(1988) I 3005-XX-A 31 26,081 26,921 4(CN) 9(1989) I 3005-XX-A 112 86,639 87,412 4(CN) 0(1990) I/J/c 3005-XX-A 404 274,042 274,719 4(CN) 1(1991) I 3005-XX-A 15 8,914 9,507 4(CN) 8(1988) K 3005-XX-C 8 3,933 4,424 4(CN) 9(1989) K 3005-XX-C 22 14,237 14,883 4(CN) 0(1990) K 3005-XX-C 3 924 1,231 4(CN) 0(1990) a/b/h/i 3005-XX-B/C/D 386 344,076 344,966 4(CN) 1(1991) a 3005-XX-D 6 14,219 16,588 1(CN) 1(1991) 0 3005-03-A 13 7,813 8,413 Estimated Production: 1986: 55,868 1987: 228,943 1988: 77,310 1989: 287,032 1990: 767,229 1991: 40,223 Total: 1,456,605 By Bios: v1.3 (Snail Maze): 284,811 v2.4 (Hang On/Safari Hunt): 406,972 v3.4 (Hang On): 382,730 v4.4 (Missile Defense 3-D): 20,538 Alex Kidd: 361,554 |
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Posted: Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:03 pm Last edited by BKK on Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:28 pm; edited 1 time in total |
PAL Master System II:
Manu. Year Run Model(s) Num_seen Max_seen Total
B(JP) 0/1(1990/1) 3006-03 75 94,665 95,926 B(JP) 0(1990) 3006-04 4 1,313 1,640 B(JP) 1(1991) 3006-05 13 13,949 15,021 B(JP) 1(1991) 3006-09 18 26,397 27,863 B(JP) 0(1990) 3006-15 4 4,822 6,027 B(JP) 1(1991) 3006-18 17 23,542 24,926 B(JP) 0(1990) MK-3096-19 6 1,276 1,488 1(CN) 1(1991) 3006-03 60 108,690 110,501 1(CN) 2(1992) 3006-03 57 90,810 92,402 1(CN) 1(1991) 3006-03 (PAL-G) 9 18,821 20,911 1(CN) 2(1992) 3006-03 (PAL-G) 72 105,692 107,159 1(CN) 3(1993) 3006-03 (PAL-G) 2 1,629 2,443 1(CN) 1(1991) 3006-04 12 18,084 19,590 1(CN) 2(1992) 3006-04 39 37,295 38,250 1(CN) 3(1993) 3006-04 11 10,074 10,989 1(CN) 1(1991) 3006-05 222 248,912 250,032 1(CN) 2(1992) 3006-05 248 289,280 290,445 1(CN) 2(1992) 3006-05A 105 103,947 104,936 1(CN) 3(1993) 3006-05A 47 29,816 30,449 1(CN) 1(1991) 3006-06 2 1,018 1,526 1(CN) 1(1991) 3006-09 228 534,265 536,607 1(CN) 2(1992) 3006-09 128 234,656 236,488 1(CN) 3(1993) 3006-09 8 14,930 16,795 1(CN) 3(1993) 3006-09A 22 28,074 29,349 1(CN) 1(1991) 3006-13 64 119,872 121,744 1(CN) 2(1992) 3006-13 52 95,810 97,652 1(CN) 1(1991) 3006-18 182 245,552 246,900 1(CN) 2(1992) 3006-18 413 530,891 532,175 1(CN) 2(1992) 3006-18A 3 209 278 1(CN) 3(1993) 3006-18A 59 80,584 81,949 1(CN) 1(1991) 3006-20 67 134,092 136,092 1(CN) 2(1992) 3006-20 32 76,536 78,927 1(CN) 1(1991) 3006-24 8 8,592 9,665 1(CN) 2(1992) 3006-24 1 1,415 2,829 1(CN) 1(1991) 3006-27 4 12,031 15,038 1(CN) 1(1991) 3006-33 4 1,644 2,054 1(CN) 2(1992) 3006-39 1 206 411 2(TH) 1/2(1991/2) 3006-XX 539 639,431 640,616 2(TH) 3(1993) 07-09 3006-XX/3006-XXA 285 273,237 274,195 2(TH) 3/4(1993/4) 00 3006-XXA 57 70,568 71,805 2(TH) 5(1995) 3006-XXA 114 120,725 121,783 Estimated Production: 1990: 79,468 1991: 1,728,273 1992: 2,058,378 1993: 509,958 1994: 8,016 1995: 121,783 Total: 4,505,876 By Bios: Alex Kidd: 3,835,534 Sonic: 670,342 PAL SMS1 + SMS II Estimated Production: 1986: 55,868 1987: 228,943 1988: 77,310 1989: 287,032 1990: 846,697 1991: 1,768,496 1992: 2,058,378 1993: 509,958 1994: 8,016 1995: 121,783 Total: 5,962,481 By Bios: Alex Kidd: 4,197,088 Sonic: 670,342 Hang On/Safari Hunt: 406,972 Hang On: 382,730 v1.3 Snail Maze: 284,811 Missile Defense 3-D: 20,538 Notes: *A couple of the SMS serials rollover into the next year, to estimate per year sales for those I took the midway point of the gap in serial numbers between the year change. I did the same to estimate bios for made in Thailand 1993 batch which had a mixture of both models. *There's a gap of 80,000+ in the made in Thailand serials. This is statistically unlikely to be missing by chance, so I assumed these serials don't exist. I applied theGerman Tank formula going backwards from serial 231000000 to estimate the start of this batch. If those serials do turn out to exist, then the actual number could be ~80,000 units higher. *Chinese SMS 1 PAL-D models don't have serial numbers. They are likely estimated if they were manufactured in the same batches as other SMS 1s, but it's possible that they are missing if they had their own batch or were made at the end of currently estimated batches. It shouldn't be a lot either way (maybe 4 figures). *After Sega stopped manufacturing SMS in 1995 Tectoy manufactured a PAL-G Master System III Compact for the few remaining European distributors (Ecofilmes in Portugal and Zegatron in Greece) for the 1996 holiday season. These don't have easily visible serial numbers, so aren't estimated. They're not super-rare though, so probably something like low 5 figures. *Strangely I've come across a batch of ~10,000 1992(!) Sega of America SMS1s which only seem to show up in Egypt (earlier models found there are PAL). SoA had ~20,000 manufactured in 1991 for Mexico, so maybe these were initially intended for there. As they seem to be NTSC models I'll include them in the North America figures when I get around to updating them, but technically they seem to have been sold in the PAL region. *This only estimates batches that I've come across, it's likely that there are other low production run batches that have been missed, so actual number may be slightly higher (more likely to be tens of thousands of units rather than hundreds of thousands. I think I've finally worked out the pre-SMS serial numbers, so I'll do Mark III next. Edit: Fixed copy paste error with annual sales. |
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Posted: Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:54 pm |
This is super interesting, thanks! Is there any update to the earlier numbers with four more years of data collection? | |
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Posted: Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:36 pm |
Mostly just Japan, but it changes very little (will update when I do Mark III numbers). I haven't bothered so much with collating more North American serials, but will do another scan of Ebay to update those at some point. |
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Posted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 3:46 pm Last edited by BKK on Sun Feb 28, 2021 7:12 pm; edited 1 time in total |
I've updated Japanese Master System in the OP. Increasing the number of serial numbers from 65 to 181 changed the estimated total from 134k to 130k. There's enough serials to say that's probably the final number (seems to be batches of 60k + 50k in 1987, with a further 20k in 1988.
For SG-1000, SG-1000 II, and Mark III the serials roll from one console to the next, so I've done all three here. The format seems to be the first letter is the year. T = 1983, H = 1984, they dropped that with SG-1000 II. Any Japanese speakers notice any relevance to those letters and years? The first number is the quarter (1-4), it's still possible to work out the year on SG-1000 II and Mark III by seeing how many times the number changes. Third and fourth numbers are the batch, numbers rollover through quarters, years, consoles etc. They seem to always have a small batch running in parallel to the main one. I've seen mentioned in service manuals for other consoles that serial numbers above certain numbers have parts from different manufacturers, so maybe something like that is what's happening here. On Mark III the small parrallel batch starts ahead from #950,000, when the main batch catches up they change the format which avoids having two consoles with the same serial number. Instead of starting with 1-4 for the quarter, they switch to 6-7 for the year, small batch continues with the old format. Year Quarter/Year* Run Model(s) Num_seen Max_seen Total
T/H(1983/4) 3/4/1 03-14 SG-1000 115 119,813 120,854 T/H(1983/4) 4/2/3/4 03-04 SG-1000 12 10,660 11,547 H/*(1984/5) 2/3/4/1/2/3 21-51 SG-1000/SG1000 II 248 307,260 308,498 *(1985/6/7) 1/2/3/4/6*/7* 60-96 SG-1000 II/Mark III 221 364,342 365,990 *(1986/7) 3/1 95 Mark III 6 6,733 7,854 I estimated annual and per console production by taking the midway point of the gap in serial numbers. SG-1000 SG-1000 II Mark III Total
1983 72,832 72,832 1984 64,718 143,927 208,645 1985 174,756 221,245 396,001 1986 128,296 128,296 1987 8,969 8,969 Total 137,550 318,683 358,510 814,743 |
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Posted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:22 pm |
Something I noticed when looking at all of these serials. The first ~18,500 SG-1000 models (serials T3030 - T3048) have four pads, one underneath each corner (latest I've seen is T3048400). After that (earliest I have seen is T3048671) they have an additional pad in the middle. Presumably this fixed a design flaw where inserting a cartridge could flex the mainboard.
Similarly, SG-1000 II started off with five pads, one in each corner, and one offset to one side in the middle. After about 100,000 units they added an additional middle pad offset to the other side. Maybe from kids leaning on the console? The only obvious difference I've noticed with Mark III which has the same six pads is the sticker. The first ~50,000 units say to use SA150 power supply, after this it doesn't specify the power supply model number. |
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Posted: Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:09 pm |
My serials (unfortunately the Mark III one is damaged):
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Posted: Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:46 pm |
^Thanks for those, if my theory is right then your Mark III was manufactured in Q4 1985, and your SG-1000 II was manufactured in Q1 1985. Mobos shouldn't be later than those dates, but could be earlier. | |
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Posted: Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:13 pm |
Thank you ! |
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Posted: Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:15 pm |
I'm going to leave SC-3000 for the time being ... overseas computers are mixed up with Japanese systems, it's not a huge problem, just requires more serials to brute force it.
So here's a bonus in the mean time. My estimates give 130k Japanese SMS + 360k Mark III for a total of 490k SMS/M3 in Japan. 130k SMSs had FM audio, but M3 required the FM-70 add-on for that. Fortunately (for production number estimates) Sega only seem to have run a single batch of these. They start with "B74"; Japan: Manu. Year Run Model(s) Num_seen Max_seen Total
B(JP) 7(1987) 4+ FM-70 35 32,821 33,758 An estimated 34k FM Sound units were manufactured ... slightly less than 10% of the 360k Mark III consoles. Adding those to JP SMS comes to 164k / 490k ... about a third of Japanese consoles could experience FM Sound. |
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Posted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 3:54 pm |
From Micom Basic Magazine, here's confirmation of 1.8 million SMS in the US though 1991-03.
And from famitsu, they were only reporting PAL SMS sales then, it gives a number of 6.10 million through 1994-03, and forecasting 6.22 million through 1995-05, which matches the 120k 1995 production estimate. So that should be the final PAL number for Sega models. |
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